Southside

Thoughts of a Newtown Socialist

Monday, February 03, 2014

TV3 News Poll - Be Careful With Minor Parties

 The commentary on the  TV3 News poll that came out last Sunday that came out last Sunday was interesting but  there are two things to remember.

1. The margin of error is 3.1% so the results don't tell you much about any party getting below about 3% in such a poll. MANA has been fluctuating between about 0.3% and 1% since the election. Such fluctuations probably mean little and are likely to be more related to my second point.

2.Over two-thirds of MANA Newtown members have not given us their landline number, probably because they only have mobile phones. I believe this is the same throughout MANA. The rating we get probably depends on the proportion of how many MANA supporters with landlines happen to be contacted by the surveyors in a survey. This should be the same in any random survey but the numbers are so low that it probably isn't.

Another thing I didn't like about the analysis was that it stated that it predicted the Conservatives to win an electorate seat. Well which one will it be and what evidence is there that they will win it?

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