Why the Alliance?

As a socialist I realise that all the registered political parties just want to run capitalism so I usually write "socialism" across my ballot paper. This time it's different.

I don't want to see National get in because under Dr Brash there will be more than the nuclear ships policy "gone by lunchtime", including: mandatory time-and-a-half for working on public holidays, income-related rents for low-income State house tenants, investment in rail and possibly better public transport, rights for trade unions, and possibly further substantial investment in hospitals. Although he denies it, I think that a National-led Government will sell State assets to pay for the tax cuts.

I can't bring myself to vote Labour (they sent SAS troops to Afghanistan a couple of months ago), Progressive (for the same reason) nor even Greens (they're not too good on water policy) so I'm voting Alliance.

Will Labour Win?

I have a sense of deja vu. In 1975 New Zealand had relatively low unemployment (about 4000 and climbing by official figures), the economy was on a downturn and energy had been a big issue (both electricity and oil). The 1975 General Election saw Labour swept out of power by Robert Muldoon leading National.

Reasons for this included a number of little scandals arising from "dirty tricks", and the inability of Labour to explain what it was trying to achieve. It was almost as if they were out of touch with the people.

Labour has not run a good campaign. Firstly, they have been on the back foot ever since the foreshore and seabed became an issue. They should have been leading debates, not doing things in response to Dr Brah's wishes. Secondly, they haven't communicated the good things they have done (building new hospitals in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Clyde for example) and seem to be out of touch with the people. Finally, this presidential style of campaigning, comparing personalities of leaders is negative. They should have concentrated on policy.

Take Helen Clark's speech a couple of months ago in Invercargill. Instead of talking about what Don Brash will do about Iraq (and she's probably right) she should have explained school closures and what Labour has done for education She should have pointed out that Dr Brash suggested a voucher system for education in 1980. I have no doubt that he would implement if he could get away with it.

What about State houses for Queenstown? Otago MP David Parker doesn't want State houses in Queenstown. How come they're alright in Porirua but not in a tourist town where many workers can hardly afford to live? Well he says that is the job of the private sector. What if the private sector can't or won't provide? Surely any self-respecting Social Democrat would call for State housing so that there can be an inclusive society.

Labour could make more capital out of the crumbs that have been given to the workers such as the Parental Leave Act and time and a half for those “decent hard-working New Zealanders” who work on public holidays.

Ever since Don Brash's Orewa speech about Maori getting so-called special privileges, Labour seems to have been reacting by giving Don pretty much what he asks for. Not long after the Orewa speech Trevor Mallard was appointed to manage race relations and to review government services to eliminate “special treatment” Maori.

Labour has given some very specific promises but given people no grand vision, no inspiration. How many people know, for example, that Labour intends to do away with the Community Services Card by 2013 because by then everyone should be able to visit a GP very cheaply?

They've lost touch with the real issues. Take the Wellington Central campaign. People fall down stairs every day and hurt themselves. Who cares what caused a certain candidate to do so? The real issues are the struggles of the little people. Who sold Capital Power and which government sold Contact energy (which has just made a bumper profit)? How can Mark Blumsky promise lower taxes when under his Council many residents faced increasing tax (rates) bills?

Another example of losing touch is the slogan. "You're better off under Labour" was dropped and now it is "Forward Together". Doesn't that sound like management speak? How many workers are sick of hearing that sort of stuff from their bosses?

The last thing that reminds me of 1975 is the presidential style of campaigning. This was Labour's idea, not National's. The sort of personal attacks that are going on remind me of Robert Muldoon. I believe that people are sick of them. Remind people of Dr Brash's ideas and possible hidden agenda, not accuse him of being a liar.

Labour has not done a good job of telling people what is at stake. They love talking about nuclear ships but forget to talk about workers' rights (what few they have), an increase in the minimum wage and the official "lowering of poverty" to name a few.

So Labour, I believe has miscalculated. I can smell it. Despite MMP I believe they will be turfed out - after all the conventional wisdom is that people vote governments out - they don't vote them in.